From JPM's Ike Boruchow, some Swiss watch export data that pretty much explains everything.

From his note:

* Ticking up. France improved significantly from its YTD performance, growing 25% (vs. 5% in June), while the UK (growth improved to 36% vs. 28% in June) and Spain (improved significantly to 48% vs. 21% in June) were also big standouts.

* Winding down. The biggest slowdown in July came out of Hong Kong (the world’s largest end market), as growth turned negative to -1% (vs. 28% in June). China improved from June’s -23% but remained negative at -9%, a sharp reversal from the region’s 40-50% growth that was being put up LY. In terms of larger markets, the US deceled to 9% (vs. 24% in June) and Singapore also slowed from June to 16% (vs. 36% in June).

* Performance by price point. The biggest delineation in demand stemmed from the pricing differential in timepieces – a trend that we’ve seen for several months now. Timepieces costing > 3,000 francs continued to drive the growth, up 24%, while timepieces in the 0-200 francs range were down 2%.

Yep, that sounds about right for the global economy

Europe not totally dead yet. China and Hong King fading. US still growing. The high end of the industry destroying the cheap end of the industry.

That's the world for you.

Business Insider